Charlie Munger日前談到比特幣，看法也與我9月時我寫過一篇⟪論比特幣（on Bitcoin）⟫(https://wp.me/p9ffS3-qO)中對比特幣的缺點描述一致：

a. 價格可快速下跌至零：正因為無產出，使得比特幣成為「無根」的財富倉庫，上漲可無限，但下跌至零也是合理。畢竟無產出的物品難以有預期收入來做真實價值（intrinsic value）的支撐內涵。
b. 技術有被破解之可能。
c. 競爭易轉激烈：正因為區塊鏈採開放原始碼，複製同樣的技術創立新數位貨幣的進入門檻很低。2017年將近100種新區塊鏈貨幣進入市場，其中有30%完全無人使用與交易。當交易速度更快、保密性更高（如Ether coin）進入市場，競爭之下必然會拉低比特幣的匯價或漲幅。而從宏觀角度來看，誕生新區塊鏈貨幣的門檻很低，是不是也意味著「數量固定」這一點其實是守不住的？值得思考。
d. 無歷史共識：相較於黃金、珠寶乃至於古董字畫，比特幣的歷史共識非常低，尤其跟黃金相比。這會使得價格下跌時，牛群信心崩盤、樹倒猢猻散的速度飛快，猶如荷蘭鬱金香炒作事件。新玩意兒容易炒，但要死也特別快。

Munger認為：
「"I think it is perfectly asinine to even pause to think about them," Munger says.
"It's bad people, crazy bubble, bad idea, luring people into the concept of easy wealth without much insight or work,"
"You know it is one thing to think gold has some marvelous store of value because man has no way of inventing more gold or getting it very easily, so it has the advantage of rarity. Believe me, man is capable of somehow creating more bitcoin. … They tell you there are rules and they can't do it. Don't believe them. When there is enough incentive, bad things will happen."

（簡單翻譯：
我認為即便花一點點時間去思考比特幣都是非常愚蠢之事...

就是壞心人、瘋狂泡沫與壞心主意，試圖引誘人們相信可以不靠工作與洞見就能致富...

你知道黃金之所以有部分儲藏價值的功能，是因為人們想不出人工製造更多或是更容易取得黃金的辦法，所以黃金擁有稀缺性優勢。相信我，人們一定能找出辦法製造更多比特幣，別相信這群傢伙，當誘因構大時，任何壞事都能發生。）」

這很吻合我認為的比特幣缺點：技術有被破解的可能，即便沒被破解，大量的區塊鏈貨幣進入市場的本質效果上，依然是代表區塊鏈貨幣整體守不住「固定數量」這件事。

關鍵思維在於：區塊鏈貨幣彼此之間也會競爭；而更符合投機炒作需求者會勝出，也會帶領一票數位貨幣死去。是的，如同我⟪論比特幣（on Bitcoin）⟫一文中開頭強調，從I. Fisher的貨幣公式來推斷，這些區塊鏈貨幣早就不存在「貨幣的交易功能」，純粹就是投機工具。

https://goo.gl/gqRDMN

WHY DO SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT BANDS MUST COMPLY TO THEIR SONG REQUESTS?

I still remember at my first ever gig in Bagan - there was this old man, an acquaintance of my dad's who requested for me to sing "New York, New York". I told him that I would, but because I sang it for him too late, he threatened to complain about me to the owner. I handed him the owner's number and told him to go ahead. I also laughed in his face when he said he was gonna tell my father I wasn't a good entertainer.

I've grown much braver and exponentially more vocal since then.

Cut to tonight - the band and I had worked quite relentlessly to prepare 3 sets of ABBA songs, and there were quite a few requests, some of which I obliged to at the end of my show. But for most of the requests, I handed back the service staff those scribbled notes (usually on some piece of paper or tissue) and told them "Rozz doesn't entertain requests that are not written on a $100 bill." Usually I say it jokingly, but sometimes, like tonight I really meant it.

There was a guy tonight, who sent me a note, in the middle of my set, which read "CAN YOU DO SOMETHING UPBEAT LIKE RIHANNA - UMBRELLA." People just have no breeding or manners sometimes. I AIN'T NO FUCKING JUKEBOX. We can't just automatically hit download and play any song request. And even if we could, why should we entertain your asinine request, especially when the other patrons are enjoying themselves? Really, if you can't sit there and enjoy what the band and I are doing, go find some other band in some cheap hotel lounge somewhere that'll bend to your whim and fancy.

Also, if you want the band and I to disrupt our set and do a special song for you, DEVELOP SOME MANNERS AND LEARN TO TIP, YOU CHEAP CUNT.

#ByeFelicia

Dash needs to brush up on his fake laughter or he won't be able to survive when people do asinine small talk with him in future. 😂

One of the amendments to the Constitution is free speech, but all around us, I see how free speech is stifled and punished. Even if someone is wrong, disgusting, or asinine, I believe we should all have free speech. Negative reactions are certainly consequences to free speech, but we shouldn't be bullied into silence, either.

At the same time, we need to be more emotionally mature and not negatively affected by things people say. Emotions are natural and often inevitable, but instead of immediately reacting, we need to observe it within ourselves, and transmute that energy into something positive.

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The song in my intro and outro was done by Hyper Potions, and it is called Time Trials. You can check out the full song here: https://youtu.be/mnfNWe-HHsI.