🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

鋼琴家盧易之演奏會

曾經得過金曲獎傳統暨藝術音樂類最佳演奏獎的盧易之，早己是受到國內樂壇高度肯定的新生代鋼琴家。他的技巧純熟，音樂性豐富，又有令人讚賞的獨有風格。

即日起至九月十五日止早鳥價8.5折
團體票十張優惠七折，請私訊小編！

票價：800 600
時間：10月22日週二晚上七點半
地點：台北誠品表演廳（台北市信義區菸廠路88號）
兩廳院售票連結：https://www.artsticket.com.tw/CKSCC2005/Product/Product00/ProductsDetailsPage.aspx?ProductID=rotyiUrPteRBjIBgFuNKkQ

古典曲目
小約翰史特勞斯/愛德華·徐特 維也納森林的故事
舒曼 森林情景 作品82

盧易之台灣民謠改編演奏
望春風
四季紅
榕樹下
草蜢弄雞公
燒肉粽
桃花過渡

盧易之｜鋼琴演奏家
「…盧易之擁有演奏李斯特〈帕格尼尼大練習曲〉所需的精準速度、雙手靈活度與惡魔般的歡愉」《南佛羅里達州古典樂評報》

「一個超技且深具音樂性的饗宴…有著精細的表情與音樂素養」德國《阿爾高日報》

「觀眾表示，未來決不放棄任何再次聽到盧易之現場演奏的機會」《萊茵─內卡時報》報導盧易之2018年〈歐洲與台灣的詼諧〉獨奏會

金曲獎傳統暨藝術音樂類最佳演奏獎得主—盧易之，於繁忙的演出行程外，至今已灌錄十張鋼琴獨奏專輯，演出布拉姆斯、蕭邦、台灣作曲家洪綺蓮、陳泗治、德國作曲家貝姆（Adolph Kurt Böhm）作品以及由台灣民謠改編之鋼琴獨奏曲，其中《貝姆鋼琴作品集》獲德國法蘭克郵報（Franken Post）及巴伐利亞古典音樂電台（Bayern 4 Klassik）極高評價，《我的蕭邦；我的布拉姆斯》更獲得金曲獎的肯定。熱衷於音樂編寫，盧易之喜將臺灣民謠、通俗歌曲、協奏曲目改編為鋼琴獨奏曲，並已出版樂譜共四冊，是台灣極少數集精湛琴藝、音樂創意與編曲功力於一身的鋼琴演奏家。
早於2006年留學維也納期間獲得季弗拉基金會頒給的特殊榮耀—『季弗拉大獎』，自學生時代即於多項國際賽事中脫穎而出，世界各地的邀演因此接踵而來，盧易之的海外演出足跡已遍及奧、德、義、荷、羅馬尼亞、斯洛伐克、美、加、日、中，並於維也納金廳、柏林愛樂廳及薩爾斯堡、司徒加特、慕尼黑…等四十餘個城市的重要音樂廳演出，歷年合作樂團包括：奧地利國家廣播電台交響樂團、維也納太平洋室內樂團、柏林古典樂手樂團、羅馬尼亞阿拉德愛樂、日本仙台愛樂、國家交響樂團、臺北市立交響樂團、長榮交響樂團等，於現當代音樂及室內樂領域亦有傑出的表現，2016年於美國西岸巡迴演出時，美國華盛頓州金縣（King County）特別將該年的7月9日訂為「盧易之日」。
出生於臺北，盧易之自幼習琴，為維也納音樂暨表演藝術大學碩士，並獲柏林藝術大學最高演奏家文憑，目前任教於國立臺灣藝術大學音樂學系及中國文化大學音樂學系。

鋼琴家盧易之演奏會

曾經得過金曲獎傳統暨藝術音樂類最佳演奏獎的盧易之，早己是受到國內樂壇高度肯定的新生代鋼琴家。他的技巧純熟，音樂性豐富，又有令人讚賞的獨有風格。

即日起至九月十五日止早鳥價8.5折

票價：800 600
時間：10月22日週二晚上七點半
地點：台北誠品表演廳（台北市信義區菸廠路88號）
兩廳院售票連結：https://reurl.cc/1y8np

演出曲目
小約翰史特勞斯/愛德華·徐特 維也納森林的故事
舒曼 森林情景 作品82

盧易之台灣民謠改編
望春風
四季紅
榕樹下
草蜢弄雞公
燒肉粽
桃花過渡

盧易之｜鋼琴演奏家
「…盧易之擁有演奏李斯特〈帕格尼尼大練習曲〉所需的精準速度、雙手靈活度與惡魔般的歡愉」《南佛羅里達州古典樂評報》

「一個超技且深具音樂性的饗宴…有著精細的表情與音樂素養」德國《阿爾高日報》

「觀眾表示，未來決不放棄任何再次聽到盧易之現場演奏的機會」《萊茵─內卡時報》報導盧易之2018年〈歐洲與台灣的詼諧〉獨奏會

金曲獎傳統暨藝術音樂類最佳演奏獎得主—盧易之，於繁忙的演出行程外，至今已灌錄十張鋼琴獨奏專輯，演出布拉姆斯、蕭邦、台灣作曲家洪綺蓮、陳泗治、德國作曲家貝姆（Adolph Kurt Böhm）作品以及由台灣民謠改編之鋼琴獨奏曲，其中《貝姆鋼琴作品集》獲德國法蘭克郵報（Franken Post）及巴伐利亞古典音樂電台（Bayern 4 Klassik）極高評價，《我的蕭邦；我的布拉姆斯》更獲得金曲獎的肯定。熱衷於音樂編寫，盧易之喜將臺灣民謠、通俗歌曲、協奏曲目改編為鋼琴獨奏曲，並已出版樂譜共四冊，是台灣極少數集精湛琴藝、音樂創意與編曲功力於一身的鋼琴演奏家。
早於2006年留學維也納期間獲得季弗拉基金會頒給的特殊榮耀—『季弗拉大獎』，自學生時代即於多項國際賽事中脫穎而出，世界各地的邀演因此接踵而來，盧易之的海外演出足跡已遍及奧、德、義、荷、羅馬尼亞、斯洛伐克、美、加、日、中，並於維也納金廳、柏林愛樂廳及薩爾斯堡、司徒加特、慕尼黑…等四十餘個城市的重要音樂廳演出，歷年合作樂團包括：奧地利國家廣播電台交響樂團、維也納太平洋室內樂團、柏林古典樂手樂團、羅馬尼亞阿拉德愛樂、日本仙台愛樂、國家交響樂團、臺北市立交響樂團、長榮交響樂團等，於現當代音樂及室內樂領域亦有傑出的表現，2016年於美國西岸巡迴演出時，美國華盛頓州金縣（King County）特別將該年的7月9日訂為「盧易之日」。
出生於臺北，盧易之自幼習琴，為維也納音樂暨表演藝術大學碩士，並獲柏林藝術大學最高演奏家文憑，目前任教於國立臺灣藝術大學音樂學系及中國文化大學音樂學系。