🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

加入PG的官方LINE＠一對一理財諮詢：https://pse.is/3dxhkq

巴菲特心中的英雄是Vanuard的創始人約翰‧柏格（John Bogle） ，一個認為選股是浪費時間和金錢的人，2017年巴菲特在波克夏的股東會提到：

「約翰‧柏格（John Bogle）為美國投資者做的事，可能比任何人都還多。」

巴菲特稱約翰‧柏格（John Bogle）開始提供指數型基金時，華爾街上沒有人願意幫忙，因為指數型基金降低了投資費用，同時壓低了華爾街的利潤，而今天指數型基金為投資者帶來的回報幾乎高於任何金融產品。

巴菲特說：

「沒有他（約翰‧柏格John Bogle），就沒有指數型基金。」

因為約翰‧柏格（John Bogle）的努力有了Vanuard，讓指數投資人有指數型基金可以使用，可以用低成本取得市場平庸的報酬。

即使柏格於2019年1月16日逝世，但他的典範將永遠長存，他策動一場造福千萬投資人的金融革命，秉著「堅持不懈」（Stay the Course）的精神，掀起一場真正為所有投資人帶來福音的指數化革命。

我認同Vanuard的價值，這是一家致力提供投資人最好產品的公司，因此我從一開始入門指數投資買的就是Vanguard的ETF，也會推薦我的客戶了解這家公司，希望這篇文章能讓你更了解Vanguard。

閱讀全文：https://www.pgfinnote.com/fast-facts-about-vanguard-group/

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肯寶KB康普茶 【專屬「老王不只三分鐘」優惠】
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「老王不只三分鐘」
粉絲購買網址: https://bit.ly/3iwYW6v

只要你懂海！萬海、陽明再噴出創高！散裝航運全線漲停！美元指數急升！華新 中鴻不同命？外資降評面板又大買？矽晶圓創高賣壓湧現？2021/06/18【老王不只三分鐘】

01:40 道瓊跌破前低支撐後就開始連跌，這邊要家法你了！四大指數接下來怎麼觀察？
12:55 港股真突破後就好慘了，現在也跌破月均線，該怎麼看呢？
15:00 陸股跌破十日均線就GG了，十日均線真的很神奇！

22:23 回到台股，櫃買指數持續創下波段新高，真的是站上季均線之後還是有一大段的走勢耶！
32:57 矽晶圓族群今天也是跟著台股同步創高的，可是好像很多開高走低？
44:13 中鴻真的是守住月均線就大漲反彈，可是電線電纜卻很弱勢，這都是因為國際報價的原因嗎？

01:02:03 面板雙雄昨天死貓跳全部漲停，是不是死而復活了？
01:10:40 散裝航運太扯了！沒有一檔不是漲停！我真的好想再拿香拜......
01:22:05 很多人那天留言謝謝董哥開示運價的基本面觀點，本周貨櫃航運也真的繼續狂噴！

#浦惠投顧 #老王不只三分鐘 #老王給你問 #老王愛說笑 #分析師老王 #台股

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浦惠投顧官網：https://www.inclusion.com.tw/

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※王倚隆（老王）為浦惠證券投顧分析師，本影片僅為心得分享且不收費，本資料僅提供參考，投資時應審慎評估！不對非特定人推薦買賣任何指數或股票買賣點位，投資請務必獨立思考操作，任何損失概與本頻道、本公司、本人無責。※

拜登要推六兆美元基建法案？鋼鐵人起飛！陽明、長榮三陽開泰果然噴上天！台股跳空站上天量高點與季均線！華邦電漲停，記憶體族群就是看投信！2021/05/28【老王不只三分鐘】

01:59 美股好像有慢慢的往前高邁進，你被家法的機會越來越少喔！果然是神一般的男人！
07:00 港股雖然今天頂到區間上緣沒過，但是也是來到區間上緣了，看來這場賭注我們要賭贏了喔！
09:26 陸股的部份，董哥有說A50指數看十日均線，那上証指數要看哪一條均線呢？

13:43 回到台股，今天用跳空突破站穩了月季均線跟大量高點，這是長線翻多了嗎？
24:04 禮拜二董哥有用面板族群講解均線扣抵值的關係，不過很多人還是不太懂，可以再教教大家嗎？
28:46 為什麼航空雙雄這兩天大漲，小編看不懂耶！疫情不是還是很嚴重嗎？

34:13 華邦電就像董哥講的長線翻多後，果然又漲停了！記憶體族群接下來該怎麼看？能不能救救旺宏啊？
42:05 選股很難，那昨天MSCI調整有新增29檔個股，我可以跟著外資買就好了嗎？

50:18 美國媒體報導拜登有可能加碼擴大推出六兆美元的基礎建設法案，這是今天鋼鐵人再度起飛的原因嗎？銅價受惠股也都飆上來耶！
01:20:15 最後不免俗，貨櫃航運真的好強好強好強！陽明真的三陽開泰就來創高了！恭賀董哥、狂賀董哥，不用家法啦！

#浦惠投顧 #老王不只三分鐘 #老王給你問 #老王愛說笑 #分析師老王 #台股

歡迎按讚臉書粉專，一天一篇免費財經解析：https://www.facebook.com/pg/winnstock
浦惠投顧官網：https://www.inclusion.com.tw/

-----------------------------------------------------------
※王倚隆（老王）為浦惠證券投顧分析師，本影片僅為心得分享且不收費，本資料僅提供參考，投資時應審慎評估！不對非特定人推薦買賣任何指數或股票買賣點位，投資請務必獨立思考操作，任何損失概與本頻道、本公司、本人無責。※

道瓊刷新歷史新高，台股下週重返榮耀？面板報價續漲，雙虎、彩晶漲停復活了？記憶體跌深反彈！電線電纜靠銅吃飯！散裝航運重新揚帆？2021/05/07【老王不只三分鐘】

06:17 美股道瓊昨天長紅突破前高壓力！又創歷史新高！其他三大指數也跟著反彈，接下來怎麼看？
13:53 陸股51連假回來之後該怎麼看？下周有慶祝行情嗎？
16:56 電子股終於終於終於反彈了～～～台股的反彈還可以繼續下去嗎？

26:57 記憶體模組本周也跟著台股回跌，這族群還能起飛嗎？
35:51 面板三雄今天幾乎都快漲停！是不是要活過來了？
47:10 可以再幫我們講講半導體的晶片廠嗎？像是華邦電、旺宏這類！

59:37 銅價攻上1萬美元了！相關的概念股像電線電纜，好像沒有在直播談過，今天要跟我們觀眾分享一下嗎？
01:05:23 十日均線也是董哥一直強調散裝航運要看的波段支撐，對吧？
01:11:28 不免俗，貨櫃航運拉尾盤，又要航向偉大的航道了嗎？

#浦惠投顧 #老王不只三分鐘 #老王給你問 #老王愛說笑 #分析師老王 #台股

歡迎按讚臉書粉專，一天一篇免費財經解析：https://www.facebook.com/pg/winnstock
浦惠投顧官網：https://www.inclusion.com.tw/

-----------------------------------------------------------
※王倚隆（老王）為浦惠證券投顧分析師，本影片僅為心得分享且不收費，本資料僅提供參考，投資時應審慎評估！不對非特定人推薦買賣任何指數或股票買賣點位，投資請務必獨立思考操作，任何損失概與本頻道、本公司、本人無責。※