【@businessfocus.io】動盪市況下想入場？華爾街投資人教你避開新手投資錯誤！
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動盪市況下，亦暗藏投資機遇。黃金價格暴增，中概股回流香港，都令不少投資新手蠢蠢欲動。近日，投資研究公司DataTrek Research聯合創始人Nick Colas在一份報告中提出了新手投資者最易犯的十...
【@businessfocus.io】動盪市況下想入場？華爾街投資人教你避開新手投資錯誤！
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動盪市況下，亦暗藏投資機遇。黃金價格暴增，中概股回流香港，都令不少投資新手蠢蠢欲動。近日，投資研究公司DataTrek Research聯合創始人Nick Colas在一份報告中提出了新手投資者最易犯的十大錯誤，希望讀者能夠在學習投資時，盡量避開這些錯誤。Nick Colas從業三十余年，是一位資深的華爾街投資者，曾在「對沖基金之王」Steven Cohen旗下SAC資本擔任十余年投資組合經理，經驗非常豐富。
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作為新手投資者，投資時可能只能根據一些基本的投資原則來學習，但往往對於很多投資界別的專業名詞卻一知半解，以下是Colas提出的十大認知錯誤，新手投資者不妨參考下！
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相信「低買高賣」
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不少新手都會錯誤認為「低買高賣」指的是，在單只個股或單個板塊新低時買入。但事情上應該是擴大自己的投資面，「從低點大規模買入，等到價格稍高再大規模賣出」。
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相信估值
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Colas指Steven Cohen曾告訴過他的一個至理名言：數學並非一項投資優勢。
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不少投資新手都會參考估值指標作為自己交易指標，例如市盈率，Colas認為當市場上每個人以一套特定的估值指標來做交易，那麽在這個數字人盡皆知的情況下，這種分析就沒有投資價值。
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Colas表示，重點不是只看數字表面，而在於研究方法和原因——「為什麽這麽便宜」「為什麽這麽貴」「市場前景如何」，這才是投資者真正需要考慮的核心問題。
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認為股票/板塊的漲跌並無因由，是市場行為
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Colas認為，他從Steven Cohen身上學到了一點：任何價格變動都有其原因。關鍵在於，這是否值得投資者花時間去了解背後的原因？作為投資者來講，時間是寶貴的，如何判斷是否值得花時間去研究價格變動，是學會投資的重要過程。
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使用不合適的時間框架進行長期分析
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Colas指，在上世紀90年代初期，富達投資一位高級基金經理曾向他傳授過、他至今仍在使用：只看時間段與你持倉期相符的圖表。比如計劃持有美股20年，那麽就看一張美股20年的走勢圖；如果想了解美元在一個經濟周期當中的交易狀況，那麽只看一張10至15年的圖表。Colas亦指出，近來市場那些關於美元走軟或黃金反彈的預測，都來自那些只關注其短期一年內走勢，或是更短時間段內進行圖表分析的人。
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認為股價只受基本面影響而波動
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今年3月美股曾經跌斷市，Colas認為在這個情況下，股價已經與基本面關係不大，而且新手投資者要認識到背後有兩大原因：1、市場可以快速嗅出未來的經濟現實狀況，價格就主導了基本面；2、危機當前，無論一家公司主營業務是什麼，資產價格相關性總會達到1.0。
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認為危機期間才做計劃，不做好準備應對危機
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Colas經歷過科網泡沫，他指當時在SAC資本的交易亦令他學會了一件事：牛市中似乎只有天才，熊市中也會出現很多錯誤決策。
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他認為許多投資者都等到市場暴跌的時候才制定出從混亂中獲利的計劃，但那時恐懼或跟風情緒已經佔上風，要作出正確決策幾乎很難。
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Colas表示，唯一解決方法就是提前做好準備，比如在美股剛開始下跌就作出判斷，例如，標普500指數每跌5%就買入一次。Colas指這樣的做法在金融危機期間已被證明有效。
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認為「一切都不會有好結果」
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Colas表示，新手犯的典型錯誤有一個，就是相信一切好快會結束，並且會有結果。但事實上，市場動蕩到很糟糕的地步之後，是最佳入場時機。
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認為政策制定者將按常理出牌
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Colas看到，過去環球經濟動蕩的4個月，美聯儲不斷推出購債刺激計劃，市場上有不少聲音反應，由於此前沒有先例或者法律依據，因此他們不能這麼做。
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Colas認為，這又是一個大大錯誤——因為政策制定者是制定規則的人，而投資者應理性根據他們的決定來配置資本。
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以不成熟的觀念為投資制定標準
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新手都知道的簡單道理，一隻重倉投資失敗，整體回報表現就會很難看。但是，經驗老將才知道，5個僅佔投資組合1%的「老鼠屎」倉位，造成的創傷和持有一隻重倉沒有什麼區別。
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相信自己永遠不會犯低級的「新手錯誤」
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Colas最後的忠告，不要自滿，最好的投資目標就是盡可能少犯錯。
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免責聲明：本網頁一切言論並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦，讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定，如因相關言論招致損失，概與本公司無涉。投資涉及風險，證券價格可升可跌。
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Text by BusinessFocus Editorial
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#新手投資 #十個常見錯誤
富達基金價格 在 動區動趨 BlockTempo - 由社群而生的區塊鏈媒體 - Media for Blockchain Facebook 的最佳貼文
#Palihapitiya #出清特斯拉 #比特幣
【特斯拉大多頭清倉！Palihapitiya 拋售全部 TSLA ，稱比特幣已可取代黃金】
🙈身價超過 1.3 億美元的 Chamath Palihapitiya，為前臉書前副總裁，昨公開表示：在過去一年，隨著特斯拉股價飆至歷史新高，已售出所有持股
另外，方舟投資旗下 3 支基金，ARKK、ARKQ、ARKW 在這週二，已累績賣出超過 340,000 股特斯拉
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#同場加映
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② 伊隆馬斯克 : 美國應避免監管加密貨幣、中國或因電力短缺封殺比特幣挖礦
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③ Reddit瘋傳》富達投資預測 : 2035年，比特幣將達每顆1億美元！
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富達基金價格 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
富達基金價格 在 動區動趨 BlockTempo - 由社群而生的區塊鏈媒體 - Media for Blockchain Facebook 的最讚貼文
#ETH #銷毀 #EIP1559 #機構興趣
【以太坊｜已燒毀近1億美元ETH！在Coinbase，交易量首超BTC；NYDIG、富達：機構興趣大增】
🔥過去一週，隨著以太坊倫敦升級，已經有超過 30,912 ETH（ 價值約 9410 萬美元 ）被燒毀。以太網路目前每天燃燒約 4,300 ETH，價值近 1500 萬美元
據《 THE BLOCK 》，也有越來越多的大型對沖基金，正在與以 NYDIG 聯繫，尋求與 ETH 相關的服務...
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#同場加映
① 以太坊倫敦升級：EIP-1559 上線之際，潑一點冷水
https://pse.is/3m8pal
② 《創智贏家》凱文奧利里 : EIP-1599後是以太坊Ultra-Sound Money時代！燒毀機制如同公司股東分紅
https://pse.is/3mefv2
①+② 以太坊6週年數據回顧：獨立地址已翻1.65萬倍，Gas價格是創世來「年均最貴一年」
https://pse.is/3m5dfx
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