War erupts in Georgia

Aug 8th 2008
From Economist.com
A war between Russia and Georgia appears to be under way


...

It appears that Russia will get heavily involved—Russia's president, Dmitry
Medvedev, says that he must protect Russian citizens there. The conflict
could now quickly spiral into a war between Russian and Georgia, and engulf
Abkhazia, a separatist region on the Black Sea coast in which Russia has much
more strategic interest.

看來俄國會非常投入這次衝突──俄國總統說他必須要保護在當地的俄國公民。這次
衝突可能升級成為俄國與喬治亞之間的戰爭，並且捲入Abkhazia，另一個希望獨立的黑
海區域；該區域對俄國來說有非常重要的戰略利益。

Russia says that Georgia fired first in South Ossetia and that several of its
“peacekeepers” inside the territory have been killed. Last month Russia
sent warplanes into Georgian airspace—to deter an attack, it said.

俄國說是喬治亞在南奧賽梯開的第一槍，然後當地有幾名俄方的「維和人員」死亡。
上個月俄國派遣戰機進入喬治亞領空──為了阻止一次攻擊，他們說。

The row has given Russia a chance to step up pressure on Georgia, portrayed
in the Russian media as a tiresome and aggressive Western stooge. The South
Ossetian leader, Eduard Kokoity, said that he would force Georgian troops out
of his self-declared republic (which is a patchwork of villages and small
towns, some controlled by Georgian authorities and others by separatists).

這次混亂的事件給俄國機會對喬治亞施壓；喬治亞在俄國媒體中被詮釋為一個非常煩人
且強勢的西方傀儡。南奧賽梯領袖Eduard Kokoity說他會逼迫喬治亞軍隊離開他的單方
宣布成立的共和國（是以補丁般的聚落和小鎮組成，一些是喬治亞政府控制，另一些
由分離份子控制）。

The quarrel in South Ossetia follows an escalation of tension in Abkhazia.
Russia has reinforced its military presence there, which is nominally part of
a UN-monitored peacekeeping effort. In the past few months European
governments got more involved in the peace process and Germany drafted a plan
for the economic revival of Abkhazia, indefinite autonomy and the return of
Georgian refugees. So far the plan has stalled. The Abkhaz authorities are
uneasy about the Russian embrace, but fear the return of Georgian refugees,
once the largest ethnic group in the region. Russia does not want to
surrender its key role in Abkhazia.

南奧賽梯的糾紛馬上跟隨著Abkhazia區域升級的緊張情勢。俄國軍隊又在當地增援了；
他們名義上是在當地主持聯合國監視下得維和任務。在過去數月，歐洲各國政府逐漸投入
這個區域的維和進程，且德國還草擬了一份關於Abkhazia的計畫，其中針對經濟復甦、
不明確的自治政體、以及喬治亞難民回歸等問題。現在這個計畫停頓了。Abkhaz當局
對於俄國的關注不甚安心，但卻又擔心喬治亞難民的回虧：那曾是當地數量最多的民族。
俄國並不想要放棄他在Abkhazia的關鍵角色。

As Russian gets involved in the war with Georgia, the disposition of
political forces within the Kremlin itself may shift. Russia’s prime
minister Vladimir Putin, who is in China, indicated that Russia would
retaliate against Georgia’s aggression. Mr Medvedev may not be best pleased
to start his presidency with a war in Georgia: it suggests that he may have
to submit to the wishes of the hard-line military and security services. But
Mr Putin has a fierce dislike of Mr Saakashvili, Georgia’s maverick
president, and seems determined to replace his government.

俄國開始與喬治亞進入戰爭狀態的同時，克里姆林宮內的政治角力可能會有新的結果。
人在中國的俄國總理普丁指出，俄國會對喬治亞的侵犯行為展開報復。Medvedev可能
不會喜歡他的總統任期剛開始便陷入對喬治亞的戰爭：這或許代表他可能還是要服從
軍方鷹派和安全系統的想法。而普丁非常厭惡喬治亞牛仔總統Saakashvili，並且希望
換掉他的政府。

Mr Putin may also want to deal with Georgia in good time before Russia hosts
2014 winter Olympic games in Sochi, a Black-sea resort town only few miles
from the Abkhaz border. A military conflict in Georgia will also derail for a
long time Georgia’s aspiration to join NATO—something that Russian finds
deeply unpalatable.

普丁也會希望盡快處理喬治亞問題，就在俄國於黑海度假城市Sochi主持2014年冬季奧運
之前，而這裡距離Abkhaz邊境只有幾英里的距離。在喬治亞境內的武裝衝突也會阻礙喬治
亞長期盼望加入北約的盼望，而該國之加入北約是俄國非常無法忍受的。

Russia’s broader aim may be to try to roll back the advance of pro-Western
forces in its “near abroad” by highlighting the West’s inability to help
Georgia. The hotting up of Georgia’s conflicts coincided with Kosovo’s
declaration of independence, recognised by much of the West, and American
pressure for the expansion of NATO to Georgia and Ukraine. That move has been
stymied, mainly by Germany; Georgia was promised eventual NATO membership but
no firm plan. Though Georgia has become a vital corridor for oil and gas
exports to Europe, this has not brought the support that its leaders had
expected. A lame-duck American administration has been able to do little,
though Georgians hope a presidential-election victory by John McCain, an
ardent supporter, may change their fortunes. The country’s strong-willed and
idiosyncratic president, Mr Saakashvili, is not seen by all European leaders
as quite the paragon of legality, freedom and reform that he claims to be.
Georgia’s image was severely dented in November last year by a crackdown
against the opposition.

俄國更大的目標可能是希望止住西傾的力量在他的「近鄰」，透過放大西方無法幫助
喬治亞的無能做起。喬治亞的衝突浮上台面與科索沃的獨立宣言多有雷同，俱是西方
非常認同的；這次衝突也與美國施壓要北約擴張到喬治亞和烏克蘭類似。美國的企圖
被德國阻止了；喬治亞只得到北約承諾在未來給予會員資格，但沒有確實計畫。雖然
喬治亞已經成為唯一通往歐洲的重要油氣出口管道，這並沒有如預期的換得歐洲各
領袖的支持。一個跛腳的美國政府能作的不多，雖然喬治亞希望共和黨的McCain當選
能夠改變情勢。這個國家的意志堅強且不按牌理的總統對歐洲領袖來說並不是如他
自己堅稱最好的法治、自由、和改革的代言人。喬治亞的形象在去年十一月打擊
反對黨時已經受到極大傷害。



http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=
11909324&source=features_box_main

--

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.129.160.164